The Western Isles seem trapped in a cycle of economic decline and

dwindling population. David Ross considers some wary hopes

FRIDAY the thirteenth could seem an apt day to stage a conference called The Western Isles: an Economy in Crisis, particularly when the islands will depart this century as they entered it, with people still leaving.

Ministers Brian Wilson and Calum MacDonald, who is also the local MP, will attend the conference, to be held at an island location on March 13. So too will the Western Isles Council, Western Isles Enterprise, Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), and as many sectors of the islands' economy that can be represented. The whole point is to give those on the ground direct access to those holding the purse strings.

The moving force behind the event is the vice-convener of the Western Isles Council, Angus

Graham, and, to an extent, it is the product of one of his more public disagreements with HIE.

In August HIE's hierarchy visited the Western Isles for the launch of the network's annual report, which boasted record figures for job

creation and investment. HIE chairman Fraser Morrison talked of economic success and conceded that its price could be the end of the Highlands and Islands' status as a European Objective One area after the year 2000. Within hours Mr Graham responded, insisting the HIE chairman had misrepresented the situation in the islands where there were still enormous problems.

In Stornoway earlier this week, Mr Graham reflected on the spat. ''I couldn't believe what I was hearing. The chairman of HIE talking up the economic success of the area before negotiations had even really begun on Objective One; and to be saying that in this community where every day you hear stories from parents who are worried their young folk can't get work and will have to leave.

''Over the past four or five years we have been faced with a steady decline in some of our basic industries, industries that provided some kind of economic stability in the past: Harris tweed; fishing; fish-farming; the ability of the council to create employment through capital projects. We have seen our initial capital consents progressively reduced: the current figure is 44.5% less than it was five years ago, and next year we expect it to be just about 50% less - an appalling reduction. The fish farming industry which was such a hope in the 1980s has rationalised to such a degree that the employment is almost half of what it was in 1987-88.

''It also has been clear for some time that the development agencies have not taken the development of the fishing industry seriously enough. The HIDB and HIE clearly took a decision to support inshore fishing and to leave the more lucrative fishing further out to the big boys from the North-east. There are now only two pelagic licences in the Western Isles, in Barra.

''The thing that is lacking in these islands is confidence to go out and take a chance.''

Mr Graham is sure that despite recent difficulties there are still huge prospects for the islands in fishing, and said there is no reason why there shouldn't be a Western Isles Box in the way there is a Shetland Box.

Harris tweed has also suffered badly. ''An industry that used to employ 700 weavers in the early 1980s with another 350 in the mills now has only about 150. There aren't many more employed in the spinning and finishing.

''Overall our economy is in a poor way, but that is not true of other parts of the Highlands and Islands. Indeed HIE should realise that some parts need a dampening down of development, in the Inverness and Inner Moray Firth area. In Orkney and Shetland there is absolutely no need for great monies from the development agencies, given the resources they have themselves. The agencies must use their resources innovatively in areas like the Western Isles and parts of the West Highlands. These are the areas where there is the real need, the lack of investment, continuing the depopulation.

''The one real prospect we have is oil to the west, but we don't know whether we will be able to capitalise on that. What we also are clearly lagging behind on is basic infrastructure, a double-track road down the island chain, a ferry service that meets people's needs rather than financial constraints.''

Much of the available statistical data serves to underline his concerns. Apart from two slight blips in 1911 and 1981, the Western Isles' population has fallen from census to census throughout the century; from 46,172 in 1901 to 29,370 in 1991 - a fall of more than 36.4%.

There has also been considerable variation between the islands in recent years. Between 1981 and 1991 the population of Stornoway fell by 121 to 5975 (a 2% reduction). In Lewis, excluding Stornoway, it was more marked - a loss of 833 people, leaving 14,184 (a loss of 5.5%). In the other islands the populations are small compared to Lewis and so a small exodus can mean a significant percentage change. Between 1981 and 1991, 45 people left North Uist and Berneray, leaving 1815 (a drop of 2.5%); 125 left Benbecula leaving 1803 (a 6.6% reduction); in South Uist and Eriskay 203 went leaving 2285 (a 8.3% loss); in Barra and Vatersay 104 left, leaving 1316 (down 7.6%). But it is on Harris, including Scalpay, where things have been worst.

Between the last two censuses some 305 people left the islands, leaving 2222 in 1991 - a drop of 12.2%. This means that between 1951 and 1991 Harris lost a massive 39% of its people, and still they go.

There appears little prospect of early relief from this stark demographic picture. Between 1975-76 and 1997-98 the primary school population in the Western Isles as a whole fell from 3796 to 2561, a drop of 32.5%. Again it was bad in Harris where the primary roll fell from 293 to 202, a drop of 31%.

However, the most alarming figures are for the Uists (South Uist, North Uist, Benbecula, Berneray, and Eriskay) where over some 20 years the primary school roll of 926 fell to 581 in the current year, a drop of 37.25%. In Lewis it was 31% and Barra 31.2%.

The projections of the General Register Office (Scotland) carry little comfort for the next 15 years, predicting that the overall population of the Western Isles will fall to 26586 in 2013, a fall of 7.9%, against an overall Scottish reduction of 1.6% , and a Highland (including Skye) increase of more than 3%.

The Hebridean loss is less dramatic than in previous decades and certainly less severe than the likes of the 18% drop projected for Inverclyde or the 10% for Glasgow and East Ayrshire. But these areas have not had to live through 150 years of remorseless depopulation already. Across the Minch they can't afford any further loss.

The economist Ken MacTaggart, who is HIE's Network Strategy Director, believes there may be some grounds for hope: ''For the first time in our experience the Western Isles is no longer the biggest net loser of population in our area. Between 1991-95 Argyll and the Isles suffered the greatest loss, followed by Caithness and Sutherland, then the Western Isles. We also saw a positive net in-migration of 0.8% to the islands.

''The other thing, which can help explain the primary school figures to some extent, is that families in the Western Isles are becoming smaller in the way they did in the rest of Scotland some time ago. None of this should disguise the fact that behind the figures there are still huge problems in the islands, but it does serve to give us some hope for the future, which in itself is important.''