Q. What are tomorrow's elections for?
A. The vote is for a 275-strong Transitional National Assembly, using proportional representation so the whole country will be treated as one constituency. Political parties have submitted lists of candidates and many have grouped together under alliances. Every third name has to be a woman's and all candidates must be at least 30. Those banned include former members of Saddam Hussein's Ba'ath party and any group backed by a militia.
Q. How safe will they be?
A. Given the level of violence, many Iraqis will take their lives in their hands to visit the local polling station. Abu Musab al Zarqawi, the al Qaeda henchman, has declared a "holy war" against the poll and extremists have threatened to kill anyone who takes part. The interim government is bringing in an additional 2500 troops, raising the total of Iraqi and multinational soldiers to about 300,000. Yesterday, it sealed the country's borders, vehicles without permits were not allowed on the roads and curfews extended.
Q. What powers will the new assembly have?
A.A law-making body, its first task will be to elect a state presidency council made up of a president and two deputies.
They will have two weeks to choose a prime minister, who will have four weeks to select ministers. The assembly will then vote on the make-up of the government. The assembly's second task will be to draw up a draft constitution by August 15, setting out the political architecture of Iraq, the role of Islam and how much control over their own affairs minority groups like the Kurds will have. The constitution will be subject to a referendum by October 15 in time for elections in December.
Q. Who will vote?
A. Who won't vote might be more to the point. Because of security and a great deal of antagonism against the interim government and USled forces, many in the four out of 18 provinces, where 25-per cent of Iraq's population live, will stay at home. The four include two of Iraq's largest three cities, Baghdad, the capital, and Mosul, as well as Falluja and Tikrit in the country's Sunni heartland.
Q. Who is likely to win?
A. The Shias form about twothirds of the population, so parties representing them are likely to win most seats. These parties have united in a list grouping called the United Iraqi Alliance. Abdul Aziz al Hakim, leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, the largest political group, and Ibrahim Jaafari, the Islamic Dawaa party's chief spokesman, could emerge as prime ministerial candidates.
If there is a strong push for a "consensus candidate", then Iyad Allawi, the interim premier, might be chosen.
There might also be a move to form a government from a broad background rather than have one totally dominated by Shia parties. One potentially major problem will be the Sunnis, with about 20-per cent of the people, who are either boycotting the election or will find it hard to vote because the violence mainly affects their areas. The Iraqi Islamic party, the largest Sunni one, has withdrawn because of the killings. Without significant representation, Sunni leaders will insist the result will be invalid.
Q. When will the results be known?
A. It could be a week. Then, it could be a further two weeks before the electoral commission declares them valid. Only at this point will the seats won by each party be confirmed.
Q. What happens next?
A. After the transitional assembly and new government approves a constitution in October, there will be the next round of elections in December to elect a fully constitutional government which will take power by December 31. However, if the new constitution is rejected, then there will have to be new assembly elections by midDecember and the process of drawing up a constitution will begin all over again.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereComments are closed on this article