Facing reality on sanctions

conclusion to be drawn from this situation is that the force of economic

sanctions is far weaker than imagined by most who counselled their use

to save Kuwait without resort to military force. It would have been

better had they been proved right, but little leverage from popular

suffering is capable of being exerted on such a regime. A more developed

or liberal society would have responded differently, but that is beside

the point. Iraq is a military dictatorship of a particularly nasty kind.

Of course its interest would be better served were sanctions to be

abandoned, hence Tariq Azziz's visit to the Vatican on the eve of the UN

debate (Mr Azziz is a Christian). There is enough sanctions-busting

going on to ensure that the suffering which indubitably exists is not

shared by the country's political and military elites. There seems

little chance that popular discontent might provoke an uprising which

would unseat Saddam (which is what the coalition allies may have hoped

for when they stopped Desert Storm well short of Baghdad three years

ago). Even an internal military coup, which is theoretically more

likely, looks like a daunting prospect given the predictable ferocity of

the response were it to fail.

In that situation is there really much point in maintaining sanctions?

As was obvious last week, the Gulf Arab states have changed their own

tune and would like to see them lifted. To the extent that they weaken

Iraq without removing Saddam they may merely be playing into the hands

of the Iranians who have been making moves to consolidate their grip on

the Straits of Hormuz. The Iranian decision to establish new missile

systems (of Russian as well as Chinese origin) on both sides of the main

deep water channel at Hormuz has alarmed the oil exporting states whose

tankers must pass a potential gauntlet. The Iranians have built a

powerful position in the (disputed) islands in the waterway. The Gulf

states are simply frightened and want to end their enmity with Iraq in

self-protection against future Iranian ambitions, even though their real

protection comes from the United States which has, so far, disregarded

the new missile deployments.

The case against maintaining sanctions does not depend on the views of

Iraq's neighbours, however. It is more important to remember that the

victims are the mass of ordinary Iraqis who have little means of

influencing their own Government. In some areas -- those involving any

Iraqi nuclear capacity -- the UN got its way, eventually, by being

heavy-handed. And, when Saddam was unwise enough to sabre-rattle last

year, the quick military response and threat was enough to halt him in

his tracks. Unfortunately, sanctions are not that kind of weapon. Of

course, if sanctions are ended Saddam will claim a victory, a thought

which must be galling to decent people everywhere, but which is nothing

new from such a cynical man.