Demons dog Lamont

that much easier to drop his accident-prone Chancellor from government.

The City has been after him for more than a year. The media has goaded

him constantly. The Tory Party went off him long ago, only recently

granting him a reprieve. The exposure of his credit card imprudence

invited ridicule. Now he is shown up as having had #4000 in Treasury

help to settle a private legal bill.

So far he has enjoyed the protection of the Prime Minister and the

Cabinet, whose economic policies he has pursued even when they had to be

turned upside down following devaluation. But there comes a time when Mr

Major's own credibility, already impaired, is at stake. Cabinet

colleagues bemoan the luck of Lamont, but worry about being dragged down

too.

It was Mr Major's original intention not to reshuffle his Ministers

until the autumn of next year. For one thing, it is tricky to do this

when Britain holds the EC presidency. While Mr Major is the chairman of

the heads of government, his senior colleagues fulfill the same

functions for their European opposite numbers.

Mr Hurd, for example, chairs the EC Foreign Ministers, Mr Lamont the

Finance Ministers. It is the British Chancellor's job, among other

things, to orchestrate an agreement on the EC budget for the next seven

years. This is hard enough with the distraction of personal

embarrassments. But it might be harder still if Mr Lamont were replaced

before the six-month presidency ended.

After the Edinburgh Summit on December 11 and 12 Britain hands over to

Denmark. If Mr Major acts swiftly thereafter, he could have a new

Chancellor in place to start work on the spring Budget. Mr Ken Clarke,

the Home Secretary, is waiting to oblige but, very recently, money has

begun to go on the Defence Secretary, Mr Malcolm Rifkind, for the job.

The Lamont position adds to the mountain of dilemmas heaped on Mr

Major. Back in June the presidency seemed a wonderful stroke of good

timing. Here was a chance to do himself and Britain a bit of good. Part

of this was bringing the EC summit to Scotland for the first time. There

was an opportunity too to steer the EC in the direction Britain wanted

it to go. But the whole thing has turned into a nightmare.

The Chancellor took on the markets to stay in the currency link and

failed dismally. Then he rowed publicly with Germany and the Bundesbank,

a desperate and damaging position to get Britain into. Anti-European

Tory emotions were fuelled.

Still Mr Lamont would not resign and still Mr Major felt unable to

sack him.

Lamont's demons have struck again, just as the Tory rebels are massing

to try to destroy the ratification Bill on its return to Commons debate

this week. This Bill is going to be a headache and a source of Tory

division. Hundreds of amendments have been tabled. They will be grouped

for a series of divisions over 20 to 30 days. Defeat for the Government

on a number of issues that could wreck the Bill -- the treaty cannot be

amended -- heralds disaster.

Labour's studied ambivalence towards the Bill is intended to leave the

Government to stew in its political difficulties. Mr Smith cannot be

blamed for this; it is his job to oppose Mr Major, not to protect him

against the actions of his own back benchers. Anyway, Mr Smith has

enough problems on his own side, which is not exactly united on the

Maastricht Bill.

The Prime Minister's luck has been on a par with Mr Lamont's. When he

negotiated at Maastricht last year, he genuinely believed that he had

triumphed by gaining legal opt-outs from the key commitments to

political and economic union. He thought that he had done well enough to

calm all but the hard-core antis in his party. There was a good chance

that Britain would not be isolated as the only country not to ratify.

He took over the presidency shortly after the Danes had rejected the

almost unanimous recommendation of their political parties and voted

''no'' in their referendum. The resulting clamour in the Commons --

which had passed the Bill in principle, with Labour abstaining in the

Second Reading vote -- meant Mr Major felt obliged to withdraw the

legislation for a cooling-off period.

He woke up to the fact that the April 9 General Election had brought

in a new calibre of Tory MPs, many of them Thatcherite and in

belligerent mood. This, they believe, coincides with the feelings of

their constituents. And in the full flush of their recent election, they

were determined to represent their constituents rather than the

Government whips.

Treaty ratification needed to be unanimous among the 12 member nations

and technically Maastricht was dead. It remains so unless the Danes

change their minds in a further referendum next year. Next month all the

other countries will have ratified; so Britain is left ''in the dock''

with Denmark. All Mr Major's efforts to convince the EC that he is

different to his predecessor and wants Britain ''at the heart of

Europe'' are dashed.

His desperate need now is to make a success of Edinburgh. With 11 days

to go, this seems a slim prospect. Decisions on the Budget, enlargement

of the Community, national sovereignty, and what to do about the Danes

seem as elusive as ever. This could change in the day and a half that

the leaders have scheduled themselves for their summit. It is customary

for contentious issues to be taken to the brink of failure, only to be

rescued at the 11th hour.

Before he even gets there, Tory rebels will be trying this week in the

Commons to make life even more difficult for him. If he fails at

Edinburgh, their efforts will be intensified in the long debates on

Maastricht stretching ahead as far as May.

But at least after Edinburgh he will have shed his EC presidency and

will be able to concentrate on saving his own skin, with or without Mr

Lamont. The latter's fate may be decided this week, but Mr Major may

have to try to cling on to him for a few more weeks.