THERE’S an old farming adage: “Rain in May fills the barn with corn and hay”.

When we used to grow 60 acres of our Cardigan Island early potatoes back in the eighties, I used to add “and fills the sacks with spuds”.

May is indeed a crucial month to British, indeed all European, farmers.That is the month when rain is really needed to provide big harvests later on.

Well, for the vast majority of UK farmers, May has been remarkably dry following a similar March and April.

2020 reminds me of the driest summer for 300 years back in 1976 when August was a dust-bowl.

However, when I checked with a farmer friend from just north of Cardigan who has measured rainfall diligently every day since the early seventies, I was surprised to learn that while in 1976 he recorded an accumulative total for April/May of 89 millimetres, in April/May 2020, he has only recorded 29mm.

That is following a pretty dry March.

Of course, this followed an extremely wet October-February period which saw major flooding. I’ve always said that our weather averages out over time.

In 1976, the worst of the drought was in June/July/August.

So if this weather carries on until then, it will be far worse than 1976.

A major problem is that while most Welsh farmers milked no more than 50 cows that year, they are milking 200 to 500 now.

They are geared up to heavy fertiliser use with sufficient rainfall. Without rain, they are woefully short of grass for both grazing and ensiling.

The same goes for spring-sown cereals. It is already evident that straw will be in short supply next winter. So could bread-making wheat.

In 1976, potatoes hit sky-high prices. So expect high prices this year, unless there is a rapid change in the weather. It will still be worth planting extra potatoes in gardens and allotments while there is no hose-pipe ban.

Some other vegetables could also get short and more expensive. It depends on the weather in June. However, at the moment it looks very dry.

The weather has been glorious, but if this carries on, there will be a price to pay. It normally rains during the summer school holidays.

We’ll see.

Lyn Jenkins

Clyn-yr-ynys

Gwbert